What Zawahiri's Words Mean for Lebanon and the Global War on Terror
Bilal Y. Saab and Magnus Ranstorp Al-Hayat - 06/05/08//
Last week, al Qaeda's number two Ayman al-Zawahiri released yet another long message urging Muslims worldwide to join insurgencies, mainly in Iraq where he claimed the "jihad" against the Iraqi government and the US-led coalition forces was bearing fruit. Zawahiri also turned his anger on Hamas for its reported willingness to accept a peace deal with Israel. Reserving a few words for Lebanon which he called a "Muslim frontline fort", he said that that country will play a "pivotal role in future battles with the Crusaders and the Jews."
While Zawahiri was mistaken to suggest that Lebanon is a "Muslim frontline fort," he was correct in his assessment that the country may play an important role in al Qaeda's global Islamic insurgency.
There are two reasons why Lebanon is and will most probably never be a "Muslim frontline fort":
One, Lebanon's multi-confessional and segmented societal structure plays against any major attempts by al Qaeda to establish a solid presence in that country. Al Qaeda has tried to boost its presence in Lebanon over the past decade but has largely failed due to the considerable challenges it has faced with regard to recruitment. In Lebanon, the crushing majority of Sunni Muslims are totally opposed to al Qaeda.
Two, even al Qaeda's few but dangerous sympathizers in Lebanon are not too keen on waging an offensive jihad against the "infidels", be it the "apostate" Lebanese government or the multinational force. Although groups like Osbat al Ansar and others may see Zawahiri as a heroic figure symbolic of their collective struggle, they do not necessarily feel compelled to subordinate themselves to him or any other al Qaeda leader.
This does not suggest that al Qaeda is not a serious threat to Lebanon; it is. Lebanon is in al Qaeda's sights. The events of Nahr al Bared last Summer were indicative of the relative ease with which al Qaeda in Iraq was (and still is) able to transfer fighters - via Syrian territories and with Syrian acquiescence - to Lebanon and cause terror and havoc there. Meanwhile, Lebanon has had its own terrorism problem with the presence of groups such as Osbat al Ansar and others who share al Qaeda's worldview.
So what did Zawahiri mean when he said Lebanon has a "pivotal" role in the global jihad? What role does Lebanon play in al Qaeda's calculations?
The reality is that Lebanon has turned into a place where jihadist travelers can quietly meet, train, and plan operations against Israel and the West. And this happens mostly in the troublesome Palestinian camp of Ein el Helweh in Sidon. There are increasing signs that radicalized European nationals are learning their trade in that camp to be re-inserted back into Europe.
Al Qaeda's senior leaders recognize the big challenges their organization would face in waging jihad on Lebanese soil. This is why they may have settled for using Lebanon as a staging ground to the Palestinian and European theaters and not so much as a jihadist battlefield. Still, terrorist operations against the international force in the South will be praised and welcomed, as Zawahiri has repeatedly reminded his followers.
Given how al Qaeda central views Lebanon, the country might be spared the fate of Iraq. However, the West and the international community still need to work closely with the Lebanese government to prevent al Qaeda from setting up shop in that country.
Bilal Y. Saab is Senior Research Assistant at the Saban center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. Magnus Ranstorp is Research Director of the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defense College.
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