The Lebanese void and sectarian polarization
Walid Choucair Al-Hayat - 28/12/07//
Lebanon's crisis is heading toward limbo with concerned politicians seeing no light at the end of the tunnel. In fact, they seem to be in a contest over not having the ability to see any hope to move beyond the presidential impasse to the point that one of the well-connected religious figures stated that he does not know how the crisis could possibly end, and "I have not found anyone who knows."
While waiting will impose itself on the upcoming days and weeks in Lebanon, the void cannot wait as it has to be filled by someone or something. Prime Minister Siniora's government is struggling to fill the void with a number of constitutional and legal measures in accordance with the Lebanese constitution to pave the legal road to the electing army commander General Michel Sleiman to the presidency and to keep the wheels of the state and administration running to the extent possible with the absence of a president. However, this government is under the fires of an unprecedented campaign for having sent to parliament a bill to amend the constitution and a decree to open an extraordinary parliamentary session, two inevitable procedures to end the void if the majority and opposition come to an agreement in the coming few days.
Siniora's efforts to fill the void by adopting procedures that may lead to the election of a new president on the one hand, and the opposition's relentless attempts to fill this void with endless slur campaigns accusing the government of betrayal and treachery and threatening the majority leaders with persecution after defaming them on the other hand, raise questions about how the state of affairs will be like from now till next March. In line with expectations, Lebanon throughout this period will stay without a president until the next normal parliamentary session when the Arab summit is held in Damascus in the same month.
If it is true that Damascus is holding the presidency hostage through its allies as a means to impose détente with other Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, and with the international community, especially with the US, and if it is true that the opposition is fighting tooth and nail to prevent the majority from stealing this card away from it and from Damascus by pushing for a constitutional amendment to fill the void, then the only thing that will fill the void in this case will be the political wrestling between the two sides. However, this will probably fill the void with political chaos with all the risks that it imposes on the minimal level of stability since Saudi Arabia seems to be in no position to open up to Damascus before the presidential elections in Lebanon are held, nor is the Bush administration willing to raise the level of its communication with Damascus above the occasional encounters between the foreign ministers of the two countries along the meetings on Iraq. Moreover, Speaker Nabih Berri has not hesitated to remind would-be mediators between the majority and the opposition that they have to move along the SS trench lines, Saudi Arabia and Syria, in the hope of achieving a breakthrough.
The Lebanese opposition's compulsion to stay in synchrony with Damascus's need to maintain the presidential void as a card in its hand through taking turns with verbal escalation and assaults against Mustakbal Movement leader, deputy Saad Hariri and against prime minister Siniora will only contribute to serious domestic tensions in Lebanon, especially if the void continues for months. The loud screaming is only mobilizing the already nervous public behind the opposition while charging the emotions of the publics behind Hariri and Siniora. Additionally, the opposition's tactic of relying on FPM leader General Michel Aoun to provoke the Christians over the government's assumption of power and the prime minister's assumptions of presidential powers is delivering a similar effect on their respective supporters. As a result, the pressures to move the SS formula becomes a means of the unaccountable inflammation Sunni-Shiite sentiments, pushing Lebanon to the edge of a serious sectarian problem. Is this what some leaders wish to fill the void with in the coming few months? This by all means is the worst outcome that the continued and deliberate presidential void may lead to, especially when employing tools that only contribute to sectarian polarization.
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