Iraq: Disintegration on the Way to Unity?
Elias Harfoush Al-Hayat - 05/10/08//
Iraq's Presidential Council's approval of the electoral law for provincial councils represents a major step that could pull Iraq out of the crisis that has brought its institutions into a state of paralysis and nearly sabotaged the relative improvement in security. This in spite of bombings shifting from one place to the next, the last of which were the two massacres that targeted worshippers on the morning of Eid Al-Fitr.
However, such an approval is not the end of the road, but rather it takes the internal struggle into a new phase, especially in light of the ambiguity that continues to dominate the national project, if indeed such a project exists, as well as the role that occupation forces continue to play, at the levels of politics and security, in influencing the electoral process. Given the state of disintegration Iraq is going through, it has become likely for the previous sectarian struggle to now transform into a struggle within every sectarian community, particularly within the Sunni and Shiite communities, considering that the Kurds enjoy a high level of cohesion as their community remains the main beneficiary of the situation that has arisen in Iraq following the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime. In any event, the electoral law excludes the three Kurdish provinces (Dahuk, Arbil and Sulaymaniyah), in addition to Kirkuk, whose fate had hindered ratifying the law at the previous stage.
Political conflicts do not only threaten the electoral process, but also increase the danger of assassination attempts and the threats to which the opponents of each side are exposed. Muqtada Al-Sadr's supporters consider themselves among those targeted in the southern provinces, as do the members of the Awakening Councils in provinces with a Sunni majority. In such a context, Al-Sadr's supporters look suspiciously at the formation of "Support Councils" in the southern and central provinces, which they consider an electoral base for the Islamic Dawa Party, headed by Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki. They believe that the security apparatuses are doing their job effectively in these regions and are in no need for "support", and that such "councils" are nothing more than an attempt to widen the electoral base of a certain party at the expense of others, such the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and the Al-Sadr Movement, especially since these councils rely heavily on tribal leaders who can attract local loyalties.
Supporters of Al-Maliki respond to such accusations by claiming that "Support Councils" play a security role under the supervision of the state, without any ties to particular political movements, and that their role resembles that of the "Awakening Councils" in Sunni areas. However, the way the Prime Minister's party affiliation is perceived leads his opponents to consider the political and security expansion undertaken by the central authority in Baghdad a form of party expansion, rather than the growth of national security institutions.
At the same level, the Iraqi Islamic Party in Al-Anbar Province believes that Awakening Councils there play a role in attracting supporters and take advantage of their newfound control of security to achieve electoral gains. In return, these councils believe that the successful security role they played in expelling Al-Qaeda elements from Sunni areas deserves to be rewarded politically in the coming elections.
Among such indications, a common denominator emerges: the US is strengthening its political role in Iraq on the eve of the coming elections, both through its established alliance at this stage with Nouri Al-Maliki, and through its successful reliance on Awakening Councils in its war against Al-Qaeda, which used to represent the greatest threat for its troops and for the security situation as a whole. It will not harm the US's plans if the necessary price of its success is internal disintegration, which is becoming increasingly evident within Iraqi factions and parties.
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