Hezbollah Is Not a Charitable Association
Abdullah Iskandar Al-Hayat - 29/10/06//
Perhaps nobody is ready in Lebanon to bet on the 'consultative body' that is supposed to start its meetings on Monday, after the exhortation made by Nabih Berry, Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies. Monday should be the day of the first session, that is, if it is not postponed at the last minute. This, in turn, would be due not only to the fact that the protagonists of the dispute will not attend these meetings, but also to the total loss of trust among the rivals, and the big gap between points of view and between the objects that these consultations are intended to achieve. And this would happen regardless of Berry's intentions and serious warnings, when he called for these talks.
It is clear that the issue regarding the government, its components and its program will draw most of the attention. Addressing the situation in Lebanon includes a discussion about Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, either positive or negative. According to Hezbollah, Aoun's party and their allies, PM Siniora represents absolute evil, and they even described him as a Hamid Karzai, and said that he is covering the project of striking Hezbollah and their weapons for the sake of Israel.
On the other hand, according to the March 14 forces, he does not neglect any components of the State, and he represents the defense of national sovereignty and the political resistance to the influence that previous forces, especially Syria, are trying to exercise on him.
Starting from these two evaluations, it is clear that Siniora's forte for his supporters, that is to say, his focus on State components inside, is his weak point for his opponents abroad. The conflict between these two functions that the government is called to implement is very much what complicates the relations between the two sides. Therefore, from this point of view, we can explain the demand for a change of government, on the one hand, and the fear for a political emptiness, on the other.
Hezbollah and its allies are demanding for this change, knowing that this government has a comfortably large majority in Parliament. Nevertheless, they believe that this majority, which originally resulted from an electoral alliance with Hezbollah and the Amal movement, lost its legitimacy when Hezbollah stopped trusting it, after the latter had disposed of the slogan which had governed this alliance, that is to say, the resistance. Moreover, they insist that the developments which followed the Israeli aggression last July, and international Resolution 1701, in which Siniora played an important role and which he achieved in a well-known way; aim to rob the resistance of its victory.
In other words, Hezbollah is saying that what is currently happening in Lebanon aims to prevent the translation of its success at the internal level. Therefore, this movement will do all it can, including popular mobilization, demonstrations, and sit-ins to impose the translation of its triumph at the internal level, and to correct the government's regional policy.
This dispute about harmony and the majority is being used as means in the battle, and not as a way to find solutions. Now, moving away from this, Hezbollah has at its disposal some cards to play at the Lebanese level, if a simple and obvious calculation is made. So far, it has not used these cards, because it has not been compelled to since its inception until the Syrian withdrawal. Additionally, the international and regional attention was reflected on Damascus and the Lebanese authorities, which weakens any of their influence on the local force.
In these calculations, Hezbollah represents the strongest military force in Lebanon, both for its weapons and for its organization. The army is one of its allies, and the Palestinian armed movements support it. This party also constitutes a big faction, if not the biggest in Lebanon, and it now has a certain financial relevance, something which only other groups used to have. The party, based on the Syrian support, is creating alliances, and is intruding into other confessions, especially the Maronites, through the 'card of the entente' with Aoun, its alliance with Soleiman Franjieh in the North, and with some Sunnite personalities who have been damaged by Siniora's centrality and, before this, by Rafik Hariri.
The internal card remains the most important and sensitive card for Hezbollah; and this is the fight against Israel. In fact, who resists the occupation and the enemy and wins is the one who uses its strength to impose the rules of the game in the internal political scene. This is the natural law of authority in every country that has witnessed liberation and resistance movements, regardless of their political regime.
This card becomes even more important because it is in line with Syria and Iran's regional calculations, knowing that these two countries, for various reasons and driving forces, are using all their influence to push for an internal political translation of the resistance against Israel. Unless Hezbollah is a charitable association for liberation that does not deal with politics, it finds itself in a position where it has the right to demand that the current government be dismantled, even if it has a parliamentary majority. Also, it has the right to replace this cabinet with one which allows it the right of decision-making.
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