"Escape" to Europe
Hassan Haidar Al Hayat - 03/07/08//
There are some who believe that the sudden Israeli warning of an earthquake hitting southern Lebanon, as well as the requests for northern Israeli hospitals to make immediate preparations, is related to a different matter, one that has nothing to do with what is happening underneath Lebanese soil but rather with what may happen upon it. Indeed, the potential for a US military strike against Iran, with the participation of the Hebrew state, has been on the rise. This was confirmed by a senior official at the Pentagon, despite the "reproach" and "resentment" of the US State Department. This could lead to a response in which Hezbollah would participate, as certified by Iranian officials.
There are also some who believe that the greatly increasing rise in oil prices, which both producers and consumers consider unjustified and exchange accusations about, is certainly not the result of the lack of supply on the market or of speculation alone. However, perhaps the reason behind it are the vast stockpiling operations undertaken by companies and governments who suspect, or perhaps possess information, that something is going to happen in the Gulf and lead either to an obstruction of the oil supply through the Straight of Hormuz, of the kind the Commander in Chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened of, or to the cessation of Iran's production, amounting to four million barrels a day, which is difficult to compensate.
Syria may be one of the countries who sensed the possibility of coming danger. This would explain the gradual but hurried shift in its approach to the region's issues, from Iraq to Lebanon to Palestine, which the French have considered a positive development that should be encouraged and built upon. It may also be the reason behind the perceived tension in relations between Damascus and Tehran, although so far merely a matter of speculation, as there is an impression that Syria has entered the phase of reviewing its choices, especially in regards to peace with Israel. It is only natural for Iran and its allies in Lebanon to be concerned, particularly after the assassination of Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus, the media uproar which surrounded the incident, and the delay in releasing the results of the investigation.
On the 14th of this month, Syria's president will be a guest of France, which has assumed the Presidency of the European Union, on its national holiday. He will also be holding official bilateral talks with Nicolas Sarkozy and attending the Union for the Mediterranean summit in which Israel is participating, after having started indirect negotiations, fostered by Turkey, with the Hebrew state, as a preliminary step to reaching a peace agreement and retrieving the occupied Golan Heights. Two days ago, Norway's foreign minister visited Damascus and held talks with the Syrian leadership regarding alternatives Syria could adopt in case it decided to modify its policies and alliances.
Certainly, such visits and initiatives are very important for Damascus, as they represent an outlet, albeit a limited one, after the isolation it has faced since the assassination of Rafic Hariri and the withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon. However, such an outlet cannot in any case replace the "opportunity" which Damascus missed when it failed to restore normal relations with the two major Arab states that had always supported it during difficult times: Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Syria failed to convince them to participate in the Arab Summit held Damascus, or even in bilateral meetings. In fact, it seems as if Damascus is trying to "escape" to Europe, in order to avoid reconciliation with Riyadh and Cairo. Nevertheless, Syria will surely return to the same problem, as its European interlocutors will demand the same thing the Arabs advised: to steer away from Iran without tergiversation, and perhaps with more accurate accountability.
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