Please Fasten Your Seatbelts
Ghassan Charbel Al-Hayat - 03/07/08//
The world wakes up to stunning news; Israeli planes bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. Tehran cannot swallow such an aggressive blow; it has no other choice but implementing the flood of threats it had been making. Iranian missiles fall on Israel; the Revolutionary Guard declares closing the Strait of Hormuz; Iranian missiles target American military bases in the Gulf region; and Washington makes the decision to resort to force. A multi-party war breaks out.
That will be the day of tough decisions. Lebanese Hezbollah's leadership cannot just stand and watch; the resistance's arsenal is Iranian; and the revolution in Tehran has been the sponsor of the party since its birth, supporting and strengthening it all the way. What is the point of surrounding Israel with missiles if these are not used under circumstances such as these? Missiles are launched. International forces in south Lebanon gather and prepare to withdraw. The events have already left Resolution 1701 behind, and Lebanon has slipped into war.
Khalid Meshal and Ramadan Shalah cannot wait to see the outcomes of the war. Iran has been very generous in supporting them. In fact, it was probably the main artery that spared Ismail Haniyya's republic from full suffocation. If Iran lost, they lose too. The missiles fall on Sderut, and Gaza slips into war.
A western diplomat seeks an immediate appointment and meets the Syrian foreign minister. He delivers a double warning; the first from Israel, and the second from the US. Syrian missiles can inflict heavy losses on Israel, but Syria is not a political organization. It is a state with known addresses, airports, bridges, and headquarters. Syria will face a very tough choice. Iran's loss at war will be a loss to its allies too. Joining Iran at its war surpasses Syria's capability.
The Iraqi organizations that grew in Iran's crib cannot rest under the umbrella of victory. Their ties to Tehran are too deep. The Iraqi street will boil. Most likely, the American military posts will be targeted, probably with a few suicide attacks. The American responses will be excessively harsh and once again, Iraq will drown in a sea of blood, especially if Iranian volunteers crossed the borders to fight the American troops in Saddam Hussein's land.
Jordan which has grown accustomed to living in the middle of fire will suffer its worst experience this time. The Jordanian street, fond of fires, will be on fire. The youth will be taken by enthusiasm and may even go as far as putting the American embassy on fire. Security forces will block their way and victims may consequently fall. New fears may mix with older fears and coming days will be harsh by all standards. Egypt too is qualified to suffer the difficulties of this crisis. Its economic and political troubles will instigate the street.
Iran is no small or marginal state. It is a major state by regional standards. Its arsenal cannot be understated and a few adventurers hold some of its most sensitive leadership positions. According to experts, the only way to prevent Iran from inflaming different parts of the region is for the American war machine to target it with a few severe blows; attacking hundreds of vital targets with massive fires that far exceed those that had targeted Baghdad with the onset of the American invasion. This means destroying command centers and missile bases and shredding both the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guard.
The Gulf States will not be spared the storm. The war will raise several serious issues that include security, stability, the flow of oil and its crazy prices and the difficulty of compensating the shortage resulting from Iran's absence.
The war will be a disaster for the region. A ball of fire will have its day in the region as a new wave of terrorism starts in and outside the region. Th outcomes will be catastrophic for Ahmedinejad's nation, pushing decades backwards. The states of the region will pay a very high price. The global economy will suffer as the earthquake doubles its troubles.
Many are certain that this war will not happen. They say that as its packs to leave, the Bush administration is not capable of launching a third war and convincing the public opinion of its necessity, especially after all the lies it propagated before invading Iraq. They say that the choice of war is too costly for Israel and that the decision to wage this war will be extremely difficult. They point at objection from Russia and China, and hesitation from Europe; but what if Israel truly believed that its existence is threatened, that the months before the American elections constitute the golden opportunity to prevent the birth of the Iranian bomb and to involve the US in a war that the Hebrew State cannot risk waging alone?
The coming few months will be very difficult for the Middle East plane. Clouds, adventurers, fears, arsenals, air bumps, storms and limited visibility. During months like this, passengers are advised to fasten their seatbelts.
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