Ayoon Wa Azan (I Admit that I Expect the Opposite)
Jihad El Khazen Al Hayat - 03/07/08//
What are the Arabs doing in Iraq? Perhaps the right question is: what are the Arabs not doing in Iraq? Personally, I do not see them doing anything.
Toward the end of last month, two official American reports on Iraq were released. The first was the work of the Government Accountability Office (GAO), entitled "New Way Forward", while the second was a study conducted by the US Army entitled "On Point II: Transition to the New Campaign". The former states that the Bush administration lacks a comprehensive strategy for Iraq beyond increasing the number of troops. It confirms that violence has decreased sharply, but adds that many other goals have not been met. As for the study conducted by the US Army, it states that military operations in Iraq from May 2003 to January 2005 were characterized by mistakes committed by the political and the military leadership, failure in anticipating resistance and terrorism, provision of too few troops, and lack of a strategy to maintain order after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime.
Personally, and as an Arab citizen, I refuse to believe the myth that security conditions have improved. The decline in the death toll does not mean that the present figures are acceptable. According to my sources, the civilian death toll (as recognized by the US, because the real figures are much higher) dropped from 2800 per month at the beginning of last year to around 1400 victims today. Are 1400 victims per month an acceptable figure? Is that good? What would have happened had the civilian victims been Jewish? Would US Congress not have voted to impeach George Bush?
Once again, I personally reject any killing. As such, I reject the war gang's assumption that the decline of the death toll in the US army from 120 men and women per month to around 30 or 40 amounts to an acceptable figure. Those young men and women, as well as those who have been killed in Afghanistan, would have still been alive in their own country had it not been for the crime committed by the war gang.
The death toll remains the worst. But everything is worsening in Iraq these days, and the Arabs are not doing anything. However, I have heard that King Abdullah II is saying that the Arab states were wrong to stay outside Iraq after it had been occupied, leaving it at the hands of the Americans and the Iranians, and that moderate Arab countries have decided to adopt a new policy in dealing with the Iraqi issue.
This is nice, and I expect to see practical steps taken by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf states (the Emirates announced that it sending an ambassador to Iraq). Ongoing American failure in Iraq means the success of Iran in spreading its influence through its Shiite allies. It also constitutes a threat to the security of the entire Gulf region in the future.
In the absence of the Arabs, an inconceivable situation has arisen in Iraq. Both the US and Iran endorse Nouri Al Maliki's government, but they disagree over every other issue. To such an extent that the possibility of a US military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities remains, and the Bush administration may well be dragged into it, even if it is initiated by Israel.
Mr. Maliki is still negotiating for "security arrangements" with the occupation's administration, and President Bush expects an agreement to be reached by next month. However, the Prime Minister of Iraq cannot resist indefinitely, in the absence of an alternative. He may not owe his seat in parliament to the Americans, but he cannot continue to govern without them. They are asking for military bases in addition to land, air, and maritime control, for the right to pursue "terrorists" without permission, and for immunity from legal prosecution for soldiers and contractors.
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I would advise our friend Maliki to reject any agreement with the Americans. The way out is to present the agreement to the Iraqi people in the form of a referendum, as the result will be an overwhelming majority for rejection, by the democratic method dear to the Americans.
At the same time, I hope that all the Arab countries would develop a plan to assist Iraq in the event of a withdrawal of US troops. Indeed, a referendum would provide the US with a face-saving exit. This way their soldiers will not die and they will save their money.
I am writing this scenario because this is what should happen, although I am not saying it will. In fact, I admit that I expect the opposite. The Maliki government, with the five parties that support it, will not let go of America and Iran without a clear alternative. The Islamic Dawa Party and the Higher Islamic Council of Iraq are allied to Iran. Yet young leader Muqtada Al Sadr remains more popular than they are among Shiites. He opposes the occupation and demands the withdrawal of American troops. Sadr has chosen not to challenge US and government troops, as he knows that all he has to do is wait. His followers within the Iraqi army represent the majority of its Shiites.
Arab states cannot afford to wait. There are new losses in Iraq every day, and American oil companies (and also Total) have returned before the enactment of the oil law. All that is left is for us to believe that the objectives of the Bush administration in Iraq are not about oil, that their price consists of American as well as Iraqi lives, and that they are all about spreading democracy and freedom.
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