A Lesson from Vietnam
Ghassan Charbel Al-Hayat - 12/06/08//
Many in the Middle East will rejoice on the day George Bush leaves the White House. Most likely, Osama bin Laden will be living in a cave somewhere. He will be tempted to deliver a message announcing his victory over the man who waged the "war on terror" in response to the New York and Washington attacks. Ayman Al-Zawahiri will not miss this opportunity either. He has better access to the media than his comrade. He may prefer to hold a press conference and receive questions over the internet. President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad will also celebrate the occasion and will make history with the fact that Bush "did not dare touch one inch of the sacred Iranian land." A sigh of relief will be heaved by those who believed that their names were on the target list compiled by the Bush administration. At the same time, those who were burdened by the alliance with Bush will be relieved; so will those who were disappointed by the American president, as he leaves without honoring his promise to turn his vision of the Palestinian State into reality.
Politicians, journalists, and commentators will not spare the departing man. Articles will smack of mockery at the president who believed he could subject the Middle East to forced surgeries as a means to sow the seeds of democracy in the region. Many will note that this man committed a crime against the region when he invaded Iraq on the grounds of alleged accusations he was never able to validate. The Middle East, according to the widely held belief, will be a much better place in the absence of this president who always acted as if he were on a mission, a mission he insisted on accomplishing regardless of the blunders and costs.
Experts will say that the acts committed by this president have shortened the American era; they have contracted the phase of the sole superpower that orders to be obeyed, possesses the stick and the carrot, and exercises the right to discipline any insubordinate who stands in its way. Those will talk about the reemergence of Russia, the rise of China and the accelerating shift towards a multi-polar world.
I have no interest in ruining celebrations. The truth is that the Bush experience was catastrophic for our region. The repercussions of his Iraqi adventure will burden us for long years to come, especially if Iran sticks to its current policy in an attempt to gain the upper hand in managing the region's political affairs, resources, and balances. However, can Bush's failure be considered an actual victory for the region and its people? Can the region's only problem be reduced to the Bush administration's recklessness and persistent American bias towards Israel?
Let us leave George Bush and the mocking celebrations aside. The picture of the Middle East for the decades to come seems difficult, alarming, and gloomy. The current unemployment, illiteracy, and poverty figures need no reminder. The failure of governments, the lack of participation, the fumbling development, and the widespread corruption are all facts that require no proof. The rise of radicalism, the rejection of the other, and the deepening culture of elimination, violence and divisive sentiments have all become present realities in our daily lives. Everything indicates that the future will be much tougher.
The population of the MENA region is estimated to grow to 692 million people by the year 2050. Consequently, food, water and energy resources will come under pressure, which in turn threatens the peoples of the region with famine. In the same vein, Egypt's population is projected to reach 121 million, Iran's 100 million and Turkey's 86 million.
I am not naïve to the point of asking the Arab governments, currently saddled with daily burdens, to solve the mid-century problems. Experience, however, shows that the future is made today; that we need two decades to reap the fruits of educational reform; that we have to start with our schools if we want our universities to keep pace with rampant development; and that our cities will sink deeper in ignorance, fanaticism, violence and poverty if we keep on producing helpless generations. Reforming education, upgrading management, expanding participation, respecting figures, and accepting the other are all battles that must be fought if we do not want to turn into troubled human groupings that live in failed states.
At this point, I ponder on the news arriving from Vietnam. This country inflicted a resounding defeat on French colonialism. It humiliated the American arrogance and discovered, decades after snatching victory, the nature of the other battles that it had to win. It realized that it could not bask in the glories of the past. Anthems of victory do not feed the hungry; songs do not create job opportunities; Ho Chi Minh's books do not replace factories; and General Giap's decorations do not replace tourists. Hence it reconsidered its rules and schools. Today, it struggles to attract investors, especially from those very countries that it defeated. It is a lesson from Vietnam that Middle Easterners should remember as they prepare to celebrate the departure of George Bush in the absence of a Vietnamese-like victory.
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