Political Shiism and the 'Afghanisation' of Lebanon
Abdullah Iskandar Al-Hayat - 27/06/07//
Takfiri terrorism in Lebanon is no longer a potential threat shared between the country of the cedars and the rest of the world. This terrorism has become a reality that has its own structure and followers. It has carried out operations that claimed civilian lives. It has led to armed confrontations with regular forces, which discover cells, weapons and funds, and arrest Lebanese, Arabs and foreigners involved with terrorism on a daily basis. The issue does not only have to do with some individuals 'returning from the jihad' in Afghanistan and Iraq. Lebanon has become a target in itself for the jihad.
There is clamor in Lebanon about connections among these terrorist cells. Some of their members could be linked to regional bodies trying to take advantage of the turmoil caused by terrorism. With regard to the battles in the Nahr el-Bared refugee camp, we heard many theories: some of them linked Fatah al-Islam to al-Qaeda directly or to Syrian intelligence; others linked Fatah al-Islam with the Future Movement, led by MP Saad Hariri. With regard to the same issue, we also heard political talk trying to link the battles in the camp to the current situation in Lebanon and to disputes between the government and the opposition.
The explosion against the international UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon came to confirm that terrorism this time goes beyond the political division, trying to draw a line of confrontation with the international forces of 'crusaders' and, finally, targeting them. Therefore, this terrorism is trying to make Lebanon exposed to all risks and 'Afghanise' it.
There is something else. This terrorism begins from a takfiri concept of the Sunnis. This means that the theatre of its operations also include Sunnis, Shiites and the co-existence between them and with Christians in Lebanon. It is trying to impose the 'takfiri jihad' equation in the political confrontation between Shiites and Sunnis. This equation is supposed to put an end to all disputes and wrangles about quotas and participation. In particular, political Shiism, represented by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, believes that it has been targeted, too, by the terrorist operation against UNIFIL. First, southern Lebanon is mainly inhabited by Shiites and they will be the first victim of a transformation of this region into the battleground of a new dispute. Second, this region, which is still considered by Shiites their fundamental stronghold, has suffered from a security breach.
This terrorist reality affects the entire country and is impossible to deal with while the Lebanese people are divided and accuse each other over who is benefiting from this split, and while the great challenge posed by this terrorism on the political administration is being reduced to a dispute for quotas. Everybody is concerned that all resources may be available for the confrontation, that is to say, at the disposal of the State and the security forces, and, before that, that they may be available to make this State strong, politically non-inhibited, capable of moving in all directions and taking all decisions to strike terrorism.
If this government, in light of current scuffles, is believed to be the expression of political Sunnism and its awakening to independence, the takfiri terrorist situation is targeting it, as well, and not only political Shiism. The latter, for their part, are till uncertain over a settlement relying on the elements of Lebanon's heterogeneous society and are still linking themselves to the regional situation hoping for a kind of peace that may guarantee their internal requests.
However, the Aghanisation of Lebanon is being imposed by takfiri and jihadist Sunnis, who will be the rival of political Shiism, Sunnis and also Christians. It also moves the issue as a whole out of the current disputes and even out of politics, the State and the parties' quotas. It also makes everyone drown into a more complicated maze than the one in which Iraq is entrapped.
In light of all this, it becomes much more important to quickly find an internal solution. The issue is no longer related only to constitutional elections within a specific period of time and to the risk of seeing political tension soaring. Indeed, it is linked to a daily race with a growing terrorist reality that benefits from many factors occurring in the neighborhood.
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