“Majorities” in Lebanon
Walid Shoucair Al-Hayat - 20/06/05//
The Lebanese calculations are about the ‘majority’, as reflected by the parliamentary elections’ outcome. The unexpected success of General Michel Aoun over moderate Christian opposition figures and presidential candidates, was made possible in some constituencies stemmed from a Christian craving, notably among Maronites, for a leader, they have been waiting for the last 15 years. The case was exactly the opposite with the Sunnis, the Shiites and likewise the Druzes, who had strong leaders in the meantime.
Calculating the ‘majority’ in Lebanon is tantamount to calculate ‘majorities’, in a country of minorities, in the absence of a two-party structure. The concept is more sophisticated than a simple and logical calculation of any democratic regime.
Primarily, one should calculate the majority within each sect. If the majority within the Sunnis is committed to the charisma of Saad Eddine Hariri and his Future movement, the same applies to the coalition between “Amal” and “Hezbollah “ within the Shiite groups, as well as to Walid Jumblatt, the Chief of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), within the Druze sect.
General Aoun still needs four more MPs to win the majority of the Maronite representatives. The “Free National Current” led by General Aoun has announced the support for three Maronite candidates and another Orthodox candidate in the North, where elections are to be held on Sunday. If these candidates win, the sum will be added to the 14, who won in Keserwan-Jbeil, as follows: 8 in Byblos, 5 in North Metn, 1 in Zahle. The total number will become 17 MPs. Now he still needs just one winner so as to win one more than half the 34 Maronite MPs. Had one of his allies won the elections, he will be controlling this majority. This is the importance of the elections of North Lebanon, since he allied with Suleiman Frenjieh, who became his top ally. A reverse scenario will keep the Maronite majority under the control of the Opposition.
This is why the Baabda-Aley elections were so significant. It was won by the Opposition for the mere fact that it is a mixed constituency and not a pure Maronite precinct. Five Maronite MPs lost their seats. Had they won the General would have guaranteed the majority of the Maronites, thus, guaranteed his leadership.
All other pan-sect majorities are on the watch, to see what is going to happen next Sunday in the North elections.
The majority allied with “Hezbollah” is concerned with the consequences of resolution 1559 (arms and resistance). Those allies (four parties) form the largest majority: The “Future Movement”, “The Parliamentary Democratic Gathering”, “Hezbollah” and the “Amal Movement”. They are represented by 72 to 74 MPs out of the 128 members.
If the majorities are to be weighed according to political slogans and dues of the next ruling structure, then the Opposition that will come to order will consist of the “Future Movement”, “The Democratic Gathering”, and “The Lebanese Forces” and “Kornet Shehwan”. They need to win between 21 to 25 seats in the North out of the 28 seats, to allow them to nominate the Prime Minister. They need a nominee whom they have their say with or one of their members (65). This is the importance of the race in the North for the Opposition. As for the Loyalists, who are in favor of the present authority and Syria, they do not solicit the victory; their only aim is to prevent the Opposition from winning more than 19 or 20 seats, i.e. they should seize 8 or 9 seats. If they win, they will force the Opposition to negotiate with them or with any of their factions like “Amal” or “Hezbollah” in order to nominate the next Prime Minister. Hence, the Syrian allies wish to recover the role of Syria in the nomination.
The nomination of the coming Prime Minister will have its impact on the composition of the future government, as the Opposition will have its big share in the Cabinet.
So far, none of the two opposed factions succeeded in acquiring a mainstream majority capable of amending the Constitution, with regard to reducing the presidential mandate. The constitutional amendment requires 83 MPs. Any victory in the North elections will be short of ensuring this majority, thus, a compromise must be attained between coalitions in the Parliament. Even if this majority becomes tenable, shortening the term of President Lahoud requires much more than that. It would require a political Lebanese-regional-international quorum to remove him from power. The Constitution gives the President the right to request from the Cabinet to dissolve Parliament had the latter insisted on re-submitting such an amendment after its rejection by the Cabinet. In case, the amendment does not win the support of two thirds of the Cabinet members.
Some political issues in Lebanon needs more than ‘majorities’ to solve them…they require an agreement between countries. This might be what Syria seeks to communicate to the International community, through its allies behavior in the elections and the assertion that Lahoud will remain in office until the last minute of his mandate.
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