A Preemptive Strike for the Siniora Government
Hassan Haidar Al Hayat - 08/05/08//
Many questions have been raised about the timing and the reasons behind the Lebanese government's decision to consider the communications network set up by Hezbollah across Lebanon an encroachment on state sovereignty. These questions also touch on the government's concern over the security breaches at Beirut International Airport located in a Hezbollah-controlled area. The government has in fact issued what can be considered a new ministerial statement; one that clearly draws the line between what the government considers acceptable on the basis of "protecting the Resistance," and what it considers unacceptable in terms of blackmail and security breaches based upon the same pretext.
According to several sources, the leaderships in the parliamentary majority have received detailed information concerning a "coup d'état" being secretly and assiduously prepared to reshuffle the security and political cards in Lebanon and turn the situation upside down to the benefit of the Syrian-Iranian coalition, which sees Lebanon as the main battleground for opposing the American policy in the region. The expected date of the "coup" is in the coming fall, during which it is almost certain that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which will look into the Hariri assassination and the other terrorist attacks, will start functioning. In the eyes of Damascus, this tribunal poses a threat to its security, and perhaps to its regime and to some of its allies in Lebanon. The date is also convenient because the US administration will not be in a position to take any major decision that could affect the results of the presidential elections.
There are multiple scenarios: a major assassination that would trigger wide-ranging civil confrontations and plunge the country into a state of complete chaos; a security operation against Israel that would lead to a wide-ranging retaliation similar to what happened in summer 2006, and perhaps cause much more destruction this time; the assassination of an international figure visiting Lebanon through its airport, which would be blamed on fundamentalist groups and result in placing the country on the list of targets of the war on terror…
How does the Syrian-Iranian coalition work to ensure the success of its plan? By massively arming Hezbollah and other allies, by providing generous funds to buy lands in such a way that will completely link South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley to the Syrian front and consequently separate them from the rest of Lebanon, and by setting up an independent multi-directional communication network linked to that of the Syrian Army.
Considering this last point, it is well-known that the work of the UN's International Independent Investigation Commission was based, in an essential part, on the analysis of hundreds of thousands of telephone calls made before, during and after the Hariri assassination between those who plotted, supervised and executed the attack. This was also the reason behind the assassination of Major Wissam Eid, who had made substantial progress in deciphering the code used in these calls and linking them together. This is why Hezbollah has begun to set up its own telephone network in the South, the Beqaa, Beirut and some parts of Mount Lebanon, which Syrian groups present in Lebanon can use. Those who asked about it were threateningly told that it was linked to Hezbollah's rocket arsenal, and was, as usual… crucial to "protecting the Resistance." The spread of this network to areas in Keserwan and Jbeil has aroused fears that Christian leaderships of the March 14 Alliance may be targeted, in an effort to create political void on the Christian arena, to the benefit of Hezbollah's ally and presidential candidate, Michel Aoun.
The Lebanese government realizes that it will face difficulties in implementing the decisions it has taken regarding the judicial pursuit of those involved in setting up the parallel Iranian communications network. However, it has made it clear that it is committed to implementing the UN resolutions concerned with the retrieval by the state of the choice of war and peace, as well as extending the state's sovereignty over all of Lebanon. Such a stance in fact signifies to the Lebanese, the Arabs and the world, the gravity of what is happening. It is also a warning to those who would trespass against its sovereignty, which can be summed up as follows: We know exactly what you are planning and we will defend ourselves.
Yet, there remains a question to which the next few days will provide the answer: Will the government's position accelerate the coup d'état?
|
