A Tsar in the Custody of the Supreme Leader
Ghassan Charbel Al-Hayat - 05/05/08//
It is difficult for Arabs to believe that a president's term comes to an end, that a president bows to the constitution, packs his papers, hands over power to his successor, and leaves. Experience offers Arabs no reason to believe. Arab palaces offer the temptation to prolong the stay in power, a temptation that rushes from artery to another.
In two days, the Arabs will behold an unusual scene. Vladimir Putin will leave the Kremlin to his successor, protégé and friend Dmitry Medvedev (42 years). I do not want to accuse the outgoing president of being a democracy lover of the type prevailing in the West. He prefers democracy under an umbrella of stability, especially as it lacks deep roots in Russia's culture. Yet, at least he did not attempt to explicitly humiliate the constitution. Despite all his successes, he simply decided to keep his heir under his watchful eye.
Rulers demand history to keep their names on its front pages. A few manage to reserve a prominent position. History is ruthless and its memory is a master of forgetfulness. Putin belongs to this few. He can simply claim that he is leaving the palace with his country in a much better state than on the day he was elected president for the first time eight years earlier. George Bush cannot make a similar claim and dares not resort to numbers to prove it.
When Putin was elected president at the turn of the century, the Russian scene was very different. The Russian Federation was at the brink of disintegration. The world was worried about the dismemberment of the Red Army's arsenal. Russia's treasury was empty, and the Tsar appeared as a pauper when sitting at the table of big leaders. The scene is completely different today. Russia is a firm state. Its army is preparing for a major overhaul, as its factories regained their vitality. Russia's coffers are bloated with billions of dollars, and the growth rate hovers around 7%. The Russian citizen is living a much better life than in the past.
It is possible to say that this former KGB colonel was lucky, but luck alone does not suffice. There has to be a solid will capable of seizing the opportunity when it arises. Putin showed this ability to the surprise of the whole world. He tamed Russia's fledgling democracy in favor of stability and prosperity. He restored the state's role and teeth. He also exploited the record increase in energy prices to improve the economy on the domestic level and Russia's status on the foreign level.
One's fifties are no right time for retirement. He will not allow his accomplishments to be wasted during another president's reign. This is how he ended up picking Medvedev. Both men come from the same city, graduated from the same university, and worked together at the municipality of Pittsburgh. When Putin moved into the Kremlin, he summoned him. He trained him to manage the palace, its backstage affairs as well as the giant Gazprom. The young lawyer showed alertness and absolute loyalty. He nominated him for the presidency, and the people endorsed him on a first round.
In two days, the seals will be in the hands of the new Tsar; an undecorated civilian; a calm young man of moderate shape; educated, diligent, and a rock lover. He has no history inside the security establishment. His liberal orientations are yet to be tested. The former Tsar, moreover, will not be far from him. He has reserved his place at the top position of the "ruling party" and the premiership. It is a most unprecedented experience in Russia's entire history and in any other history.
When Russia chooses its Tsar, the world has to deal with him. Many issues await him; from the missile shield to NATO's appetite; from North Korea to Ahmedinejad's dreams; from the relationships with the US to keeping an eye on China's rise. The world will be busy for long wondering about the decision-making pole and the sizes of roles within the Russian continent.
Luckily for the world, Putin has not left the palace in the hands of void as President Emil Lahoud did. One can only fathom the dangers of leaving behind an empty Kremlin; with the opposition raising its tents in the Red Square near Lenin's grave; the Duma leader banning it from convening because the government lacks legitimacy; and the general insisting on sleeping in Joseph Stalin's bed or else he would demand a complete package to keep the bed empty.
In two days, the Arabs will be inspecting a tempting scene. Medvedev was born only four years before Qaddafi's September 1st revolution. At the same time, the Iranians will claim that Medvedev is nothing but a Tsar in the era of "the Supreme Leader" who happens this time to be Vladimir Putin.
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