Iran and the New Offer
Abdallah Iskandar Al Hayat - 05/05/08//
In light of the new offer made by the six great powers to Tehran to halt uranium enrichment, it is possible that the testing period for Iran's intentions regarding the nature of its nuclear program has reached - or almost reached - its end. Despite the secrecy imposed by the foreign ministers of the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany on their agreement in their Friday meeting in London, and although the offer does not include a deadline for resuming negotiations, leaks indicate that it includes a more generous and detailed development of the previous offer. At the same time, the ministers refrained from using the threatening and intimidating language of sanctions in case Tehran was not responsive.
According to Russian foreign minister Serguei Lavrov whose country opposes the policy of sanctions against Iran, this generous offer requires the suspension of enrichment only during the negotiations phase. There are also reports that the offer includes the possibility of supplying Iran with nuclear technologies for electricity generation as part of cooperation in the energy field in addition to trade, investment, and national security benefits. This means that the five permanent member states at the Security Council and Germany wish to reassure Tehran regarding its right to benefit from nuclear energy as well as its right to development and security.
However, the question remains whether or not Iran wants to grab this new opportunity to prove that its enrichment program does not have a military dimension as it claims.
Previous experience and repeated Iranian statements, it seems that Tehran is not interested in any offer related to uranium enrichment, which it considers to be its unequivocal right. Yet, it also shrouds its nuclear program in such secrecy and ambiguity that prevents the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to rule out its military dimension. Moreover, Tehran still withholds essential information from IAEA inspectors that can determine the nature of its nuclear program beyond any doubt.
Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed the fact that possessing the enrichment cycle technology does not satisfy the process of activating nuclear reactors but also constitutes one of the pillars of national independence and pride from great power, a slogan. so dear to the Islamic revolution in Iran. The decision-maker in Tehran can no longer retreat with respect to the enrichment program, especially not after all the national mobilization and the accusations of betrayal and collaboration with the west against anyone calling for moderation in negotiations, and after the parliament enacted a law that prohibits the government from compromising over enrichment.
In this sense, the enrichment issue has become one of the main tools in the current conflict for power, not only between the conservatives and reformists, but also among the conservatives in power. This was revealed in the changes inside the national security council and the team in charge of the nuclear file, along with the repercussions of all this on the last legislative elections campaign.
In parallel, it seems that Tehran is striving to link negotiations over its nuclear file to its regional position and interests, particularly in Iraq. This is what Moscow alluded to after Tehran's announcement that it will be offered ideas for solving its problems, during the discussions of a Russian delegation that visited Iran last week. It is likely that this announcement was a preemptive step by Tehran before the outcomes of the London meeting over its nuclear file two days ago. This implies that Iran may be preparing to make a counterproposal to the western offer, allowing it to stall and gain the time it needs to impose on its western negotiators the fact that it has crossed the point of no-return with respect to its nuclear project.
Such calculations, however, may be valid at times when the six great powers are divided, but no longer work with the new offer marketed by Tehran's allies within this group, namely Russia and China. Lavrov expressed this by assuring that "the offer is most sincere" and called upon Iran to "carefully study all its aspects".
|
