Mutual Suspicions over the Lebanese Dialogue
Elias Harfoush Al-Hayat - 28/04/08//
Speaker Berri's call upon the various players in the Lebanese crisis to reconvene at the dialogue table has stirred the still waters of domestic politics after a period of stagnancy imposed by conditions and counter-conditions set by the majority and the opposition on the implementation of the Arab initiative.
One of the manifestations of this change is that a fundamental player in the majority, namely MP Walid Jumblatt, has acknowledged the benefits of returning to dialogue, the least of which, as he summed up, would be revealing the intentions of the opposition and the degree of its independence from the Syrian position which, according to the Druze leader, remains the obstacle to internal settlement.
Yet, another manifestation is that Speaker Berri himself who had previously delegated his role as dialoguer to MP Michel Aoun, is once again presenting himself as someone capable of sponsoring the dialogue without giving up his position as a central player in the opposition. In fact, he sees that even if the dialogue arrives at nothing more than a declaration of intentions, it would still pave the path to electing the consensus president. Hence, the significance of the meeting between the two men while the 18th session to elect a president was once again rescheduled, and hence the importance of the positive talk about a meeting for the main players before the presidential election session set on May 13.
Despite the prevailing positive atmosphere, regardless of whether it is real or fabricated, one specific certainty should not be forgotten: dialogue has never ceased between the two parties to the Lebanese conflict. It has persisted, either directly or through the media. In other words, the leaders were constantly and fully aware of one another's positions. Everyone remembers the sessions held by the Arab League Secretary General at the parliament where the majority was represented by former president Amine Gemayel and MP Saad Hariri, while the opposition was represented by MP Aoun. The sessions were fruitless because "level two," as Amro Moussa put it, remained shut to the solution.
This begs the question: What has changed that justifies the propagated positive atmosphere? Are Berri and Joumblatt aware of new variables at the regional level that permit optimism?
Undoubtedly, the atmosphere created by the Turkish initiative which carried a proposed Israeli withdrawal to Damascus and Syrian affirmation of its desire for peace with Israel in return for its withdrawal from the Golan, will affect Syria's alliances in the region, including its alliances in Lebanon. In as much as the Lebanese ground is used as a platform for getting tough at times of regional escalation, it can also be used to cool things down when there is need to send cold messages. Consequently, it is necessary to raise questions about the responsiveness of Syria's allies within the opposition, especially Hezbollah, to Berri's call for dialogue and the extent to which this responsiveness is aligned with the mentioned regional atmosphere.
The lack of trust between the dialogue partners and the exchanged accusations of relying on outsiders and their interests were among the most significant factors that blocked previous sessions which ended with resolutions and agreements that were never implemented, especially the resolutions pertaining to the future of the Lebanese-Syrian relations. Despite the optimistic atmosphere, the lack of trust remains present today. The opposition deals with Berri's call as a means of dividing the majority through the differentiation between Jumblatt and his allies; the majority, on the other hand, sees it as a test for Berri's ability to distance himself from his allies and their Syrian supporters, not to mention its questioning the motive behind the Speaker's call which came out on the same day when the Friends of Lebanon meeting in Kuwait was issuing its final statement.
Given the mutual suspicions, the only positive factor in all this may be its contribution to defusing domestic tensions and creating hope for the Lebanese that the promised war has not yet reached their doorsteps, at least as long as its "heroes" are still capable of talking to one another.
|
