Al-Zawahiri and Lebanon
Abdullah Iskandar Al-Hayat - 23/04/08//
It is unlikely that Speaker Nabih Berri's new approach will lead to any breakthrough in the presidential crisis, especially that the core of the political conflict remains unchanged. The opposition is still trying to improve its ability to make decisions at the authority level, while the majority considers such improvement an encroachment on its understanding of the concept of authority and the general direction of its policies. Before and even after Berri launched his initiative for dialogue as a platform for presidential elections, the general impression is that all sides are betting their stakes on time and on unexpected developments that would force the other side to make concessions. In other words, despite all Arab and international efforts, the issue is about passing time with the least possible losses. However, this bet on time only reinforces the constitutional void.
So far, this void remains under control. The government continues to conduct the general affairs of the state, although in the least effective manner, given the exceptional position it is allowed to maneuver in. At the same time, the parties remain committed to avoiding violent confrontations, at least explicitly, and even when inflammatory and fiery speeches are occasionally translated into actions on the ground in this or that area among mobilized partisans, hence exerting more pressure on security forces.
In all cases, this organized void which the local Lebanese players perceive as advantageous as they expend time, may sooner or later turn against them all. All of them, at least explicitly, considered themselves harmed in the Nahr al-Bared military confrontations when the void in North Lebanon was exploited to build Fateh Al-Islam. It is the same void that offers sanctuary inside camps and security zones to radicals, and all this will backfire on all Lebanese parties. The Iraqi experience in this respect is loaded with lessons to be learned. Al-Qaeda was able to find refuge in Mesopotamia as a result of the void suffered by the institutions and state, as well as the political-sectarian divide. In other words, regardless of its causes and motives, terrorism can only grow amid vacuum. Terrorism even benefits the most when local opponents believe that they can exploit it to their advantage and employ it to serve their objectives. Once it finds its place along with contradictions, terrorism then imposes itself on all sides. Once again, the Iraqi experience offers numerous lessons for those who wish to learn.
In Lebanon, while Speaker Berri was proposing the renewed theory of dialogue to end the crisis, and regardless of the factors that led to it, Ayman al-Zawahiri was reminding all of the Iraqi lesson. He announced that the "jihadists" should expel the UNIFIL forces, rejecting UNSC Resolution 1701. On the one hand, this may respond to the opposition's desire to end the consequences of the July war, even in a most remote manner. However, al-Zawahiri also pointed out that those "mujahideen" are caught between two fires, one of which includes "regional powers" that continuously come under criticism from the majority.
Hence, when the acting powers in Lebanon bet on the void as a means to expend time, there are those who try to pitch in at this opportunity. As the Iraqi experience evidently shows, and as the Fateh al-Islam clearly proved in Lebanon, al-Qaeda is no illusionary danger. It is operating on the ground and taking advantage of mobilization by all sides. Moreover, while al-Qaeda attempts to target the West and its lifestyles represented by the majority elites in Lebanon, it never forgets its fundamental battle with political Shiism and its regional ties that are currently represented by the opposition in Lebanon.
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