The Predicament of the Arab State System
Mohammad Salah Al-Hayat - 25/03/08//
Whether or not the Arab Summit that convenes this weekend in the Syrian capital sees high-level representation by Arab leaders, the irrefutable truth - as revealed by Arab contacts and meetings prior to the summit - is that the entire Arab state system is in considerable danger. This is whether Arab leaders whose states have had reservations about Syrian behavior vis-à-vis the Lebanese crisis attend or stay away and send representatives in their place. The discussion at the summit will reflect how the Arabs will manage their affairs over the next year, during which Syria will lead the entire Arab state system until the date of the next summit.
The official Egyptian announcement that President Hosni Mubarak will stay away from the summit was nothing new. Rather, it would have been a surprise to see Mubarak attend after the recent pace of overt and covert disputes between Damascus and Cairo over the Lebanese crisis. Speculation has it that Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu al-Gheith will head his country's delegation. Meanwhile, Mubarak has flown to the Russian capital, armed with important dossiers related to Egyptian-Russian relations, particularly the Egyptian nuclear program. In the last few weeks, he has not hidden his fear that the summit will fail if it is not preceded by a solution for the Lebanese crisis. In general, there is no time for seeing indirect messages constantly exchanged among several Arab capitals, which are trying to avoid open political clashes. The Arab League Secretary General, Amr Moussa, must now redouble his efforts to preserve a minimum level of Arab accord with regard to other important issues, including of course the Palestinian issue, Iraq, the situation in Sudan and Somalia, the Arab common market, the Arab national security and other "files" that will be put on the summit's agenda.
However, it appears that Moussa's efforts to bring together the Lebanese sides and solve the crisis there will develop after the summit. His efforts will focus on solving new Arab contradictions, which have not erupted yet, between the two sides within a single country, each of which accuses the other of relying on foreign powers (one or more states). The contradiction among Arab states will be tantamount to seeing an Arab state system's weak body overtaken by cancer, becoming weaker and prone to falling apart. Whatever the level of diplomatic representation at the summit, we have the Lebanese issue, which has dominated discussions and contacts prior to the summit and will continue to do so during the summit, as long as the country's presidency remains vacant. This issue appears headed to seeing the Arab polarization continue after the summit; the empty presidential seat, the government and the Lebanese parliamentary elections will become pressing points to be added to other Arab predicaments that will erupt, based on the level of representation at the summit, the justifications put forward for the absence of this or that leader, and the accusations of negligence leveled at each given state as a reaction by the Syrian side.
The pre-summit picture shows each side preparing for the post-summit phase. However, Arab problems will not end, and they have not since the founding of the Arab League itself. The Arabs have always been able to arrive at consensus solutions and general formulas that satisfy them. Thus, the Arab state system, which might face a crisis that will last for a full year, has the prior experience that will help it overcome this crisis, even if this will take a year. However, another challenge could complicate the Arab predicament or serve as its coup de grace. Before this year is out, the international resolution on the international court to try Rafiq Hariri's killers will have become a reality, and based on the charge sheet in this case, the Arabs will know which way they will head in the end.
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