Turkey and the Troubled Lake
Ghassan Charbel Al Hayat - 25/02/08//
The scents of wars are all over the Middle East. Wars of existence, wars over borders, and civil wars. Wars over roles and wars over positions. The scent of confessional sedition needs no evidence. The balance that once prevailed before the invasion of Iraq has collapsed. The Iraqi explosion has added a new dimension to the danger resulting from the invasion itself. The September 11 attacks have resonated throughout this region whose present dreams of retrieving the glamour of the past, only to lose track of the future. The rest of the picture consists of a continued Israeli occupation, a blocked horizon, and a growing sentiment of frustration and despair. This is not to mention economic failure and the absence of institutions that guarantee participation and serve as safety valves against the dangers of complete collapse.
In this troubled and scared lake, the states adopt a variety of methods to guarantee their stability and search for their role. At times, there seems to be a stark contrast between these methods, as if these states live in different eras and use dictionaries that offer different visions and vocabularies.
Ahmedinejad addresses the world with his fist. He swings millions of fists. He seems to be obsessed with the nuclear dream as if it were the magic cure for his nation's fears and its regime. He risks confrontation with the international legitimacy and with the only superpower. He speaks as if the revolution prevailed just yesterday, as if Khomeini was still residing in the Jamran suburb. His nation searches for its leadership in the region by asserting its capability to threaten oil security and the security of Israel. This attempt to grab regional leadership threatens to awake the fears of the other residents of the region. This attempt warns of a confrontation with great powers that cannot accept this role for Iran as it leads to a major revolt in a region of extreme vitality for the global economy.
In this context, any observer of Middle East affairs will stop at the current Turkish experience. The observer feels that the Justice and Development Party is adopting a discourse that suits the current global situation even despite its Islamic roots. It seems that it has been the only Islamic party in the region that has succeeded in modernizing the Islamic vision after the end of the Cold War and the formation of a new world order. All this is evident in the manner in which the party has handled domestic and foreign affairs alike.
Erdogan's party did not capitalize on the authorization it received from voters to attack the foundations of Ataturk's secular republic. It chose the framework of institutions, to work from within these institutions and to accept the rules of the game in a democratic state by paying heed to the sentiments of its other citizens. It chose to respect the constitution and the fundamentals of which the army acts as custodian. With the army accepting the new realities, a recipe for stability was established despite the occasional tugs of war.
In the post-September 11 world, Turkey went to Afghanistan. It proved that it could honor its commitments as a member nation of NATO. At the same time, during the American preparations for the invasion of Iraq, it proved that it could refrain from playing certain roles that are not in line with its reading of its regional calculations and interests.
Turkey has expanded in the Middle East. Its criticisms of Israeli practices did not prompt it to boycott the Hebrew state or to repeal former agreements in the areas of security, armament, and intelligence. It took advantage of its position to become a mediator at times. It also led the efforts to reduce tensions between Syria and Israel and to convey messages and assurances. While Iran came to South Lebanon through Hezbollah's missiles, Turkey came through its participation in the international forces there.
The Turkish experience aims at regulating coexistence between a party with Islamic roots and a secular constitution, between Turkey's desire for a bigger role in the Islamic world without having to take off the NATO beret or giving up its dream to join the European house. Turkey is searching for a role in the Middle East by reinforcing its ability to speak to all parties. In all these conciliatory efforts, Turkey is after two objectives: its own stability and its interest in a scared region and in a world that is suffering because its only superpower has taken a hit in its leadership capabilities.
Amidst all these calculations, it is possible to understand the current Turkish incursion into north Iraq. This incursion aims to undermine the bases of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) there and to push the party to give up arms or to force it in this direction. It is very likely that this toughness toward the party will be followed by steps toward Turkey's Kurdish citizens in terms of more recognition of their cultural rights and their demands that do not contradict national unity. The outcomes of the last parliamentary elections showed that the options of the Kurdistan Workers Party are not necessarily the only and final option for Turkey's Kurds who can be lured with incremental gains and more rights away from aspirations for separation or gaining the said rights by force.
In a region that reeks of wars, the Turkish experience deserves to be considered. It is possible to say that Turkey appears to be a sane state in an insane region.
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