François Bayrou's Chances
Randa Takieddine Al-Hayat - 21/02/07//
Could the emergence of head of the center-right Union for French Democracy party, François Bayrou, as the third candidate be the surprise of the French presidential elections?
Many in France do not feel inclined to vote for Ségolène Royal, the candidate for the Socialist opposition party, because they believe she is not convincing and does not possess the abilities to become the president of France.
Many do not like Nicolas Sarkozy, the candidate for the ruling Union for a Popular Movement party either, as he is emotional and voters perceive his positions as rather extreme.
Opinion polls indicate an increasing support for Bayrou, who appeals to undecided voters who do not wish to vote for either Sarkozy or Royal. Could he outperform any of the leading candidates?
Recent polls revealed that Bayrou could get as many as 16% of the votes in the first round of the elections, and that he is ahead of the candidate of the ultra-right National Front, Jean-Marie Le Pen.
So who is Bayrou? He is virtually unknown internationally, with the exception of Israel, where, like Sarkozy, he has built a reputation for being a friend of the Jewish State and a supporter of its polices. However, he differs from Sarkozy in the fact that the latter is completely dependent on the his alliance with the US, while Bayrou has fully supported French President Jacques Chirac's decisions against taking part in the US war on Iraq, and has lashed out at Sarkozy's decision, during his last visit to the US, to offer apologies in the name of France for the lack of solidarity with the Americans.
Moreover, Bayrou is convinced he is capable of reaching the presidency and firmly believes in his domestic election platform, which calls for changing the pattern for reaching power, which has been alternating from the Socialist Left to the Gallic Right, and engaging the best elements in both parties.
This confirms that Bayrou could appoint a socialist former minister such as Bernard Kouchner or Dominique Strauss-Kahn as head of the government; a possibility supported by his public praise of the performance of the current Minister of Employment, Social Cohesion and Housing, Jean-Louis Borloo.
Bayrou also seeks to win the votes of the many socialists who do not support Royal, therefore becoming the most serious obstacle to Sarkozy's win.
Bayrou is also convinced that he will not be as weak as Jean-Pierre Chevènement, a former minister and the third man in the presidential campaign that led to the election of the late French President François Mitterrand, and that he has reasonable chances of becoming the president.
And despite the fact that he is internationally unknown because of his lack of activity at this level, he is European oriented, but his personality lacks charisma.
Bayrou has resisted attempts by close aides to Chirac to consolidate the entire Right under the umbrella of the Coalition for the Popular Movement party and has retained control of his party. Today he is betting on the collapse of Sarkozy and Royal, on the basis that neither has been able to unify the ranks of his party.
A former minister and a close aide of the late President Francois Mitterrand has reportedly said that he called Bayrou a few weeks before the death of Mitterrand to tell him that Mitterrand had said to him that Bayrou would one day become President of the Republic. Will Bayrou make that prediction come true?
Perhaps it is too early to make predictions, as Sarkozy still leads in the opinion polls and Chirac has not said his final words yet. If Chirac supports Sarkozy, this could fundamentally change the election campaign because Chirac enjoys popular support, and because of his ability to tip the balance in favor of the candidate who has his backing. The same applies if he withholds his support from any of the candidates.
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