Hezbollah: A Card Used When Necessary

     Al-Hayat     2003/08/1

Beirut

Robert Malley, former advisor to President Clinton on Arab-Israeli Affairs and head of the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group, said: "Hezbollah is always playing the role of a local and regional card, which is used every time it becomes necessary."

This comment came in a report issued by the group, and which included a presentation of the way Hezbollah was affected by the war on Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, as well as by the mounting American pressures on Syria and Iran.

Malley indicated that the Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon in May 2000 deprived this party from its basic raison d'être. Moreover, the swift U.S. military victory in Iraq reduced Hezbollah's possibility of directly intervening in the conflict there, knowing that its capacity to call for Palestinian armed resistance decreased and questions are suddenly being raised about the future of Hezbollah.

Entitled: "Hezbollah: Rebel Without A Cause," the report pointed to the fact that the party was adopting today a wait-and-see policy regarding future developments in Iraq and on the Israeli-Palestinian front. These events could revitalize the party's goals and its attractiveness to followers.

According to one analyst, Hezbollah is waiting for the U.S. to make a wrong move, and for the number of American victims in Iraq to rise. It is also relying on an increase of Iranian influence there. The party is also betting on the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian truce, so as to change the balance of power and find a formula for its survival.

Hence, the report mentions that the West, namely the U.S., must take these comments into consideration, when it draws its policies in the region; these policies should also consider the increasing pressure on countries and organizations that support or participate in armed attacks, and offer them real benefits in case they cease this support. Hence, exerting constant pressure on Hezbollah, Syria and Iran shall play a major role in setting the future of this region. The U.S. has no choice but to organize the situation in Iraq and incite both Israelis and Palestinians to strongly move towards solving their conflict. The solution must include Syria and Iran, whereas Hezbollah should be encouraged to become a main civil player in the region, with a positive role.