Neo-Conservatives And Their Most Powerful Secret Weapon

Raghida Dergham     Al-Hayat     2003/07/11

The bad situation in Iraq, the increasing skepticism regarding the evidence given on weapons of mass destruction and the admittance of the false information given by the intelligence services to wage a war, all should logically kill the motivation of the war advocates, whether the neo-conservatives or the radical conservatives, and stop them from escalating the situation in Iran and other Middle Eastern countries. However, the ongoing developments in the region are far from any logic, and seem to be heading towards a preplanned confrontation, just like it happened when the war on Iraq was decided a year and a half before it actually took place, regardless of what the previous Iraqi regime did by answering or rejecting demands. The battle over the American public opinion is being played between the toppled President Saddam Hussein who wants to send piles of American corpses to the American land, so as to bring the people to demand withdrawal from Iraq, on one hand, and the neo-conservatives who want to divert attention from the danger of getting involved in the Iraqi swamp by magnifying the risks emerging from Iran and triggering other clashes in the region.

The neo-conservatives have decided to start the escalation plan the way they did with the war in Iraq, in order to silence any opposition, whether American or international, by referring to dubious means of justifying war, under the theme of weapons of mass destruction.

These people are counting on what is called the fix incapacity of the American memory, which quickly forgets matters that do not concern it directly, just like the organizational capacity of conservatives and their success in infiltrating the media and brainwashing Americans. In fact, the American individual is easy to convince with the neo-conservatives' point of view. Hence, what we call public opinion can be monopolized and manipulated.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks that brought down the World Trade Center towers in New York and stroke the heart of power at the Pentagon in Washington, remains the only carved memory in American minds, which nurtures their feelings for revenge. War on Afghanistan has become a fading memory in American minds, which has taken with it all the chaos of the Taliban regime and its destiny. As for Al Qaeda, it is still present in these minds knowing because it is directly related to the 9/11 attacks; but the obsession with Osama bin Laden's fate has turned to nothing but a passing curiosity once in a while.

Americans are bored with Afghanistan's story and have forgotten it - exactly the way neo-conservatives want them to be bored with the Iraqi story and stop following its incidents. This requires diverting attention in a wise strategy as to prevent any essential questioning regarding the American dangers in Iraq and in deliberately promoting a war under magnified themes by sometimes using false information from the intelligence services.

The important thing in the American memory is the "victory" in war against Iraq, as well as the victory in war against terrorism. This is why victory was quickly achieved but the war is still going on.

Some people in the U.S. administration do not want any further unnecessary wars during the reelections campaign for Bush. These people would rather see some peaceful achievement to make the American President stand out, especially in the Arab-Israeli file, so as to bring him local and international support in the elections.

In fact, the success of the Roadmap towards the establishment of a free Palestine alongside Israel ought to soothe the anti-U.S. hatred and change the common impression towards the President, according to which his arrogance is leading to further revenge operations.

The neo-conservatives are not waging an open war against the moderates inside the U.S. administration, but they are depending on the American President's incapacity to maintain his plan of implementing the Roadmap, in the hope that Palestinian terrorism will contribute to this operation. Some also hope that the Palestinians will be the only ones to blame.

On the other hand, the neo-conservatives are avoiding to publicly defend what is going on in Iraq, whether regarding the false reasons for waging war, or the false intelligence reports related to the presence of weapons of mass destruction and the attempts to get uranium from Niger, or even the fact that they have no plans for the post-Saddam Iraq, which warns of turning the country into a swamp into which America is drowning.

The debate in the U.S. addressing these two matters has an electoral dimension, as some democrats seeking presidency are using this file as a weapon against the republican administration. However, the American public opinion is not ready yet to disregard the mistakes and the involvement, in the name of nationalism and patriotism, which makes them tend to relief the neo-conservatives from this responsibility.

Unless more American soldiers are killed everyday, no one will be specifically held responsible for this war. This is exactly why Saddam Hussein might perceive the American triumph as just a battle in a long war.

The irony of this equation resides in the fact that Saddam and the neo-conservatives share the same goal, each for his own contradictory reasons. Justifying the extension of the American-British occupation of Iraq requires a clear enemy and constant mayhem. Saddam Hussein is obviously providing this enemy and that fact that he is still alive prevents Iraqis from curing their fears and terror from him, and makes the Iraqi society more fragile and vulnerable towards chaos.

Saddam might want to prolong the occupation to pile up the corpses of the American soldiers as to provoke the American public opinion and trigger a rebellion similar to the one opposing the Vietnam War. Besides, chaos and occupation provide the best atmosphere to regain control over Iraq, at least from his perspective.

Both ways, the occupation in Iraq will last for a long time, whether Saddam Hussein is arrested or found dead, and that, for practical reasons related to Iraq and strategic ones that have to do with the region in general.

On the Iraqi level, the rehabilitation of Iraq and turning it into an independent state capable of running its own affairs is a complicated process that could take years. The U.S. is not yet ready to stop interfering in Iraq, as the latter holds the second largest oil reserves in the world, not to mention that it is a highly important element for neutralizing Israel's neighbors and an extremely necessary stop in U.S. foreign policy.

The neo-conservatives want to take over Iran, remove the rule in Syria and provoke chaos in Saudi Arabia in order to split it up, as well as to domesticate and subjugate Egypt, and put the Arab oil in the hands of American companies and impose this fact on OPEC.

According to them, Israel should be their partner in imposing their hegemony and should remain the sole nuclear power possessing weapons of mass destruction, without being held accountable for it. Some are still working on removing all Arabs, Muslims and Christians from Israel, and believe that all this chaos is an opportunity to maintain the occupation and deport the Palestinians to Iraq and Jordan, so that Jordan becomes the alternative home. This certainty of theirs stems from many reasons such as their perception of Arabs as cattle and that the Arab scene has proven many a time its incapacity and submission to what is dictated to it.

Iran will be harder for them to deal with. This is why the neo-conservatives have already started implementing a long-term strategy towards Iran. Their goal is not to wage war against it the way they did in Iraq. There is no need for that, since it is already surrounded by American troops following the wars on Afghanistan and Iraq. But it possesses enough superior military potential to wage a nuclear campaign.

The U.S. will not hesitate to hit the Iranian nuclear reactor the way Israel did to Iraq, unless Tehran submits to the demands of IAEA.

Their plans for Syria might require waiting until the second mandate, but not necessarily. The developments on the Palestinian-Israel scene and inside Sharon's mind will set the date.

Their first goal is to accuse Syria of "terrorism" by relying on its constant relations with Palestinian organizations considered by the Americans as "terrorists," as well as its relations with the Lebanese Hezbollah, which both Israelis and Americans say is a "terrorist" group.

They might seem to be a group of radicals, but they are extremely powerful in the current American administration. Some rules and Arab leaders cave in without questions, as their priority is to survive. Others want to be defiant, but are afraid of bearing alone the consequences, while others see it as an opportunity to make partners. The important thing is to be strongly aware of who the neo-conservatives are, what they want, who they want it for and why. Only then could we act against their goals and counter their most powerful secret weapon - the compliance of the public opinion.