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The Bet Is On Tripoli
Mohamad Al Ashab Al-Hayat 2004/01/4
When Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar visited Libya a while ago, the event was not only related to the first visit of a high-ranking European official, but it was also an indication that the Americans became interested in the North African region. It seems that Spain will follow the role played by Britain, in the Gulf and Middle East, in the Northwest African region. France, which is surrounded by Madrid and London, would be the most harmed. However, the Americans, who started depending on themselves in managing struggles, picked the North African region from its weak link.
Nothing equals the bet on Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's Jamahiriya except the reassurance that a real breakthrough in the current disagreements between Algeria and Morocco would not happen. Because where there is tension, there are intricate American calculations. The problem of the French, the possessors of traditional influence in the Northwest African region, is that they lost the chances of openness towards Libya and did not succeed in eliminating the disagreements between Morocco and Algeria. However, what is constant is that their positions of support to Morocco in the Western Sahara conflict is due to the fear of losing the Northwest African region as a result of the increasing Spanish ambition, which paved the way to American openness towards Libya. It will also have more than a role in Southern Europe on the other bank of the Mediterranean.
It does not seem that the Spanish engagement in what is happening in Algeria is only a result of fearing the instability that might lead to damaging the Spanish interests, which are dependant on Algerian gas, but it is also for the sake of discussing a new possible form to rearrange the relations with the North African countries. It is obvious that Madrid, who ignored European efforts to solve the conflict with Rabat (sovereignty over Leila Island) a year and a half ago, realized that American mediation, led by the Secretary of State Colin Powell, was more than solving the problem concerning an uninhabited island. In the American strategy, the Middle East has always been connected to North Africa. The Libyan position, geographically at least, was an obstacle in this connection. That is why it could be said today that the road is clear from Rabat to Cairo, for a speed train driven by the obsessions of post-collapse of the former Iraqi regime.
A few days ago, Colonel Gadhafi announced that the Western Sahara issue would be among the priorities of the Northwest African Summit, which his country is hosting. In connection to this, his son Saadi mediated to release Moroccan prisoners in Tindouf, south west of Algeria, while historical facts confirm that Gadhafi stopped supporting the Polisario Front when he entered into the Unity agreement with Morocco. Moroccan archives did not reveal, yet, any call from Gadhafi on the Polisario to form an opposition party within the Moroccan regime. The link between these positions is that Libya, which was seeking mediators between the Americans and itself, is now capable of mediating in regional issues. It is no coincidence that the Spanish were the first one who cared for openness with Tripoli after the war on Iraq. It is also no coincidence that the French are further out of the picture in Libya. Since Gadhafi will never forget that the French used to support Chad in its war against Libya, which now does not mean flicking the pages of some historical rights, but merging with the stormy transformations. The paradox of that war is that it made him reevaluate his African calculations, which happen to meet, this time, with those of the big players'. In the great desert, extending from Egypt to Mauritania, there are temptations to move the North African region into a part of American interests.
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